That's an excellent and very practical question. As someone who's observed and specified these units for municipal projects, I can give you a real-world perspective. The short answer is: it's surprisingly durable, but chipping is inevitable over time. The key is in the application.
Most quality urban trash cans today use a powder coating process, not traditional liquid paint. The finish is electrostatically applied as a dry powder and then baked on, creating a much harder, more uniform layer that bonds to the metal. This makes it highly resistant to fading, scratching, and general wear from weather and cleaning.
However, "chip resistance" is a different battle. While the coating itself is tough, the corners, edges, and lids—areas prone to impacts from debris, kicks, or being knocked by equipment—are the most vulnerable. Intentional vandalism (scraping with metal objects) and improper cleaning with abrasive tools or harsh chemicals are the primary causes of premature chipping.
You'll typically see minor chips appear within 1-3 years in high-traffic areas, while cans in calmer spots can look good for 5+ years. To maximize longevity, look for cans with a primer undercoat and a specified dry film thickness. Regular, gentle cleaning with mild detergent also helps preserve the finish. So while it won't stay perfect forever, modern coatings are engineered to withstand the urban jungle far better than the paints of the past.