That's an excellent and very practical question! As someone who has dealt with cracked bins in the past, I can tell you it largely comes down to the quality of the plastic. Not all outdoor trash cans are created equal when facing freezing temperatures.
The good news is that most modern, reputable plastic trash cans are specifically engineered to handle winter stress. The key is the type of plastic used. Bins made from high-density polyethylene (HDPE) are the champions here. HDPE is a flexible, resilient polymer that remains pliable even in extreme cold. Instead of becoming brittle and snapping, it has some "give," allowing it to withstand the expansion of frozen contents or an accidental bump from a shovel.
Cheaper bins made from thin, low-grade plastics are much more prone to cracking. When these materials get cold, they lose all flexibility and can shatter like glass if put under pressure.
Beyond material, look for features like reinforced walls, a one-piece rotational-molded construction (which minimizes weak seams), and a design that allows for expansion. A common cause of cracks is when water gets into the bottom, freezes, and expands with nowhere to go.
A quick tip from experience: If you can, avoid letting liquids pool and freeze solid at the bottom. Emptying the bin before a deep freeze is ideal. Also, be gentle when knocking out stuck ice; use a rubber mallet instead of a metal shovel.
So, to directly answer your question: A high-quality HDPE plastic outdoor trash can is highly resistant to winter cracking. Investing in a well-made bin designed for four-season use will save you the hassle and cost of a replacement come spring.