That's an excellent and practical question, especially for municipalities and businesses in colder climates. The short answer is: it depends entirely on the material and construction quality. Cheap, thin plastic bins become brittle and will almost certainly crack. However, modern, commercial-grade urban trash cans are specifically engineered to handle extreme cold.
The key is high-density polyethylene (HDPE) or polypropylene with UV stabilizers and impact modifiers. These materials retain flexibility well below freezing. I've seen quality cans in cities like Chicago and Montreal that shrug off -20°F (-29°C) winters. Their rotational-molded, one-piece construction eliminates seams—common failure points. Metal components, like pedal mechanisms, use cold-weather grease to prevent seizing.
Proper design is crucial. A slight taper prevents ice from locking lids shut, and rounded corners distribute stress instead of creating crack-prone sharp angles. While no material is utterly indestructible, a well-made can should last for years without weather-related cracking. The real test isn't just cold, but the freeze-thaw cycles and physical impacts when the plastic is at its most rigid. Investing in bins rated for commercial outdoor use is the only reliable strategy for freeze-proof performance.